Rosie Fisher

Prediction Infrastructure for the Earth System

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Climate models are often discussed as scientific tools. But increasingly, they function as infrastructure: embedded systems that societies implicitly rely on when making long-horizon decisions.

This shifts the key question from “how accurate are the models?” to:

what does it mean to maintain predictive infrastructure for a complex, partially observable Earth system?

Infrastructure, not instruments

Unlike traditional scientific models, Earth system models are:

continuously evolving
distributed across institutions
dependent on shared code ecosystems (e.g. CLM, FATES, CESM)
deeply coupled to observational pipelines

They behave less like experiments and more like infrastructure stacks.

Why Earth System Models Fail in Practice

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Earth system models (ESMs) are often evaluated in terms of their ability to reproduce historical climate statistics or large-scale mean states. But in practice, their most important role is not hindcasting — it is providing probabilistic structure for future risk.

This creates a fundamental tension: models can be “good” in a climatological sense while still being structurally weak in the variables that matter for prediction under change.

Three recurring failure modes stand out:

Why Land Surface Processes Dominate Carbon–Climate Uncertainty

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A large fraction of uncertainty in future carbon–climate feedbacks originates not in the atmosphere or ocean, but in terrestrial ecosystem dynamics.

This is not primarily a question of missing carbon pools, but of structural uncertainty in how land processes are represented in Earth system models.

1. Nonlinear vegetation dynamics

Vegetation is not a passive tracer of climate. It exhibits:

threshold behaviour
disturbance-driven regime shifts
competition across scales of space and time

These dynamics are only partially resolved in most ESMs.

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Travels through the theoretical and actual land surface

I have had the tramendous good fortune of living in many interesting places and to be influenced by the ideas of many wonderful and thoughful scientists. This is a summary of the story of my journey in science, via places, people and ideas (abbreviated )…

Northumberland

I grew up in the lovely county of Northumberland in northeast England. My dad (who taught and researched urban redvelopment) was an early enthusiast of what we would now call “rewilding”, and I spent much of my childhood watching plants colonize the tangled garden behind our house, or walking in the nearby Lake District. At school I became fascinated by the successional ecophysiology of sand dunes — particularly how plants not only create increasingly fertile conditions for their competitors, but also fundamentally reshape the land itself.

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Mostly life has dealt me an excellent hand, and I have few complaints. But for what it is worth, I am also affected by three different forms of dysfunction, which I mostly try to ignore and mention here mainly so I do not have to keep repeating myself.

I am Partially sighted

In 2020 I discovered that I have a rare and inoperable type of benign brain tumor that presses on my optic nerves, meaning I can only use about 40% of my visual field. So when I say your fonts are too small, I really do mean it.

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Google Account

rosie fisher

rosieafisher@googlemail.com

CLM and FATES

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Community resources:

Overview

This page summarizes my work on the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), including model development, benchmarking, and community coordination.

CLM

The Community Land Model is the land component of CESM and supports process-based simulations of carbon, water, energy, and vegetation dynamics.

CLM page: Community Land Model (CLM)
CESM community: CESM Community

FATES

FATES is a demographic vegetation model framework used within CLM and ELM configurations to improve representation of forest structure, disturbance, and competition.

CV

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Rosemary(Rosie) Alice Fisher

Nationality: British.

Email: rosie.fisher@cicero.oslo.no

Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Education

PhD, University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences (2005) The response of rain forest to drought stress.
MRes, University of Edinburgh, Natural Environment (Distinction) (2001)
BA, University of Oxford (Balliol College), Biological Sciences, First Class Honours (2000)

Professional Experience

Research Professor, (Forsker I) CICERO Centre for International Climate Research., Oslo, Norway. 2021-present
Research Scientist, Laboratoire Evolution et Diversite Biologique , Toulouse, France (2020-2021)
Research Scientist, CERFACS, Toulouse, France (2019-2020)
Scientist II, National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder, Colorado, USA (2016-2020)
Scientist I, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA (2013-2016)
Post-Doctoral Researcher, Los Alamos Natinoal Laboratory, New Mexico, USA. (2009-2010)
Post-Doctoral Researcher, University of Sheffield,UK (2005-2009)

Publications

For full list see View full list

Funding and Projects

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Ongoing

WIEMIP Warming-Induced Emissions Model Intercomparison Project. (PI Ben Poulter)
BorealBlaze (2025-2029): Climate effects and feedbacks of changing high-latitude wildfire. NRC, 12M NOK (Co-I, PI Marianne Tronstad Lund).
** INESII (2025-2030):** Infrastructure for Norwegian Earth System modelling phase 2. NRC, 25M NOK (Co-I, PI Mats Bentsen).
NAVIGATE (2025-2029): Navigating the uncharted territory of the Anthropocene climate. NRC, 12M NOK (PI Jerry Tjiputra).
NCS-REVISE (2025-2029): Revising the climate change mitigation potential of natural climate solutions. NRC, 12M NOK (Co-I,PI Ryan Bright).

Personal

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In 2015 Ben Sanderson (who also a climate scientist at CICERO) got married at Cuddystone Hall in Northumberland National Park. After many moves, we now live on the side of a hill in Western Oslo with our son and a huge Norwegian cat called Angus. We probably talk a bit too much about science over dinner.

Outside of work I like cultivating wild and edible plants, latin dancing, x-country, telemark and randonneé skiing, and running as far into the mountains as my uncooperative hips will allow.

Publications

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Publication profiles:

Selected Publications by Year

2026

Chambers JQ, Nogueira Lima AJ, Pastorello G, Gimenez BO, Meng L, et al. (2026). Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate. Nature.
Sanderson BM, Baur S, Schleussner CF, Peters GP, Mittal S, Sandstad M, et al. (2026). Robust assessment of Solar Radiation Modification risks and uncertainties must include shocks and societal feedbacks. EGUsphere.
Eckes-Shephard AH, Argles APK, Brzeziecki B, Cox PM, De Kauwe MG, et al. (2026). Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world’s forests. New Phytologist.

2025

Alpay G, Fisher J, Braghiere RK, Brzostek E, Dauber G, Allen K, Fisher RA. (2025). Optimizing plant nutrient uptake: cost function sensitivity analysis of the FUN model. Environmental Research: Ecology.
Foster AC, Hawkins LR, Kennedy D, Bonan GB, Fisher RA, Needham JF, et al. (2025). Contrasting parametric sensitivities in two global vegetation models using parameter perturbation ensembles. JAMES.
Needham JF, Dey S, Koven CD, Fisher RA, Knox RG, Lamour J, Lemieux G, Longo M, Rogers A, Holm J. (2025). Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index. New Phytologist.
Gomez JL, Allen RJ, Horowitz LW, Turnock ST, Fisher RA, Clifton OE, Mignone BK, Shevliakova E, Malyshev S. (2025). Climate effects of a future net forestation scenario in CMIP6 models. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
Keetz LT, Aalstad K, Fisher RA, Poppe Teran C, Naz B, Pirk N, Yilmaz YA, Skarpaas O. (2025). Inferring parameters in a complex land surface model by combining data assimilation and machine learning. JAMES.
Kennedy D, Dagon K, Lawrence DM, Fisher RA, Sanderson BM, Collier N, Hoffman FM, Koven CD, Kluzek E, Levis S. (2025). One-at-a-time parameter perturbation ensemble of Community Land Model 5.1. JAMES.
Raoult N, Douglas N, MacBean N, Kolassa J, Quaife T, Roberts AG, Fisher RA, et al. (2025). Parameter estimation in land surface models: challenges and opportunities with data assimilation and machine learning. JAMES.

2024

Sanderson BM, Booth BBB, Dunne J, Eyring V, Fisher RA, et al. (2024). The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7. Geoscientific Model Development. DOI
Allen RJ, Samset BH, Wilcox LJ, Fisher RA. (2024). Are Northern Hemisphere boreal forest fires more sensitive to future aerosol mitigation than to greenhouse gas-driven warming? Science Advances. DOI
Liu L, Fisher RA, Douville H, et al. (2024). No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability. Communications Earth & Environment. DOI
Knox RG, Koven CD, Riley WJ, Walker AP, Wright SJ, Holm JA, Wei X, Fisher RA, et al. (2024). Nutrient dynamics in a coupled terrestrial biosphere and land model (ELM-FATES-CNP). JAMES. DOI
Hes G, Vanderkelen I, Fisher RA, Chave J, Ogee J, Davin EL. (2024). Projecting future forest microclimate using a land surface model. Environmental Research Letters.
Poppe Teran C, Naz BS, Vereecken H, Baatz R, Fisher RA, Hendricks Franssen HJ. (2024). Systematic underestimation of type-specific ecosystem process variability in CLM5 over Europe. EGUsphere.
Robbins Z, Chambers J, Chitra-Tarak R, Christoffersen B, Dickman LT, Fisher RA, et al. (2024). Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest. New Phytologist.
Douville H, Allan RP, Arias PA, Fisher RA. (2024). Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects. Science of the Total Environment.
Cheng Y, Wang W, Detto M, Fisher RA, Shoemaker C. (2024). Calibrating tropical forest coexistence in ecosystem demography models using multi-objective optimization. JAMES.

2023

Lambert MSA, Tang H, Aas KS, Stordal F, Fisher RA, et al. (2023). Integration of a frost mortality scheme into the demographic vegetation model FATES. JAMES. DOI
Keetz LT, Lieungh E, Karimi-Asli K, Geange SR, Gelati E, Tang H, Yilmaz YA, Aas KS, Althuizen IHJ, Bryn A, Falk S, Fisher RA, et al. (2023). Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform. Global Change Biology.
Shuman JK, Fisher RA, Koven CD, Knox RG, Kueppers LM, Xu C. (2023). Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the fire-trap in the tropics: insights from FATES. Geoscientific Model Development.
Li L, Fang Y, Zheng Z, Shi M, Longo M, Koven CD, Holm JA, Fisher RA, et al. (2023). A machine learning approach for parameter estimation in ELM-FATES (v2.0). Geoscientific Model Development.
Ding J, Buotte P, Bales R, Christoffersen B, Fisher RA, Knox R, et al. (2023). Coordination of rooting, xylem, and stomatal strategies explains conifer response to multi-year drought. Biogeosciences.
Wilcox KR, Chen A, Avolio ML, Butler EE, Collins S, Fisher RA, Keenan T, Kiang NY, Knapp AK, Koerner SE, Kueppers L. (2023). Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of grassy ecosystems. Global Change Biology.

2022

Needham JF, Arellano G, Davies SJ, Fisher RA, Hammer V, Knox RG, et al. (2022). Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest. Global Change Biology.
Koven CD, Arora VK, Cadule P, Fisher RA, Jones CD, Lawrence DM, et al. (2022). Multi-century dynamics of climate and carbon cycle under high and net negative emissions. Earth System Dynamics.
Yao Y, Joetzjer E, Ciais P, Viovy N, Cresto Aleina F, Chave J, Sack L, Bartlett M, Meir P, Fisher RA, Luyssaert S. (2022). Forest fluxes and mortality response to drought (ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA). Geoscientific Model Development.
Hardouin L, Delire C, Decharme B, Lawrence DM, Nabel J, Brovkin V, Collier N, Fisher RA, Hoffman FM, Koven CD, Seferian R. (2022). Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing. Environmental Research Letters.
Needham JF, Johnson DJ, Anderson-Teixeira KJ, Bourg N, et al., Fisher RA. (2022). Demographic composition, not demographic diversity, predicts biomass and turnover across temperate and tropical forests. Global Change Biology.

2021

Sanderson BM, Pendergrass A, Koven CD, Brient F, Booth BBB, Fisher RA, Knutti R. (2021). The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints. Earth System Dynamics. DOI
Walker AP, Johnson AL, Rogers A, et al., Fisher RA. (2021). Multi-hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models. Global Change Biology. DOI
Ma W, Xu C, Koven CD, Fisher RA, et al. (2021). Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model. Biogeosciences. DOI
Braghiere RK, Fisher JB, Fisher RA, et al. (2021). Mycorrhizal distributions impact global patterns of carbon and nutrient cycling. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI
Chitra-Tarak R, Xu C, Aguilar S, Anderson-Teixeira K, Chambers J, Detto M, Fisher RA, et al. (2021). Hydraulically vulnerable trees survive on deep-water access during droughts in a tropical forest. New Phytologist.
Kovenock M, Swann A, Fisher RA, Koven CD, Knox RG. (2021). Leaf trait plasticity alters competitive ability and functioning of simulated tropical trees under elevated carbon dioxide. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. DOI

2020

Koven CD, Knox R, Fisher RA, Chambers JQ, Christoffersen BO, Davies S, Detto M, et al. (2020). Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using FATES at BCI, Panama. Biogeosciences.
Needham JS, Chambers JQ, Fisher RA, Knox R, Koven CD. (2020). Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality. Global Change Biology.
Huang M, Xu Y, Longo M, Keller M, Knox R, Koven C, Fisher RA. (2020). Selective logging impacts on water, energy, and carbon budgets in Amazon forests using FATES. Biogeosciences. DOI
Fisher RA, Koven CD. (2020). Perspectives on the future of land surface models and challenges of representing complex terrestrial systems. JAMES. DOI
Arora VK, Katavouta A, Williams RG, Jones CD, Brovkin V, Friedlingstein P, Schwinger J, Bopp L, Boucher O, Cadule P, Delire C, Fisher RA, et al. (2020). Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models. Biogeosciences.
Sanderson BM, Fisher RA. (2020). A fiery wake-up call for climate science. Nature Climate Change.

2019

Fisher RA, Wieder W, Sanderson B, Koven CD, Oleson KW, Xu C, et al. (2019). Parametric controls on vegetation responses to biogeochemical forcing in CLM5. JAMES. DOI
Lawrence DM, Fisher RA, Oleson K, Swenson SC, Bonan G, Collier N, Ghimire B, van Kampenhout L, Kennedy D, et al. (2019). The Community Land Model version 5: new features, benchmarking, and forcing uncertainty. JAMES.
Xu C, McDowell NG, Fisher RA, Wei L, Sevanto S, Christoffersen BO, Weng E, Middleton R. (2019). Increasing impacts of extreme drought on vegetation production under future climate change. Nature Climate Change.
Massoud EC, Xu C, Fisher RA, Knox R, Walker AP, Serbin S, Christoffersen B, Holm JA, Kueppers LM, Ricciuto DM, Wei L. (2019). Key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in CLM4.5(FATES). Geoscientific Model Development.
Kennedy D, Swenson S, Oleson KW, Lawrence DM, Fisher RA, da Costa ACL, Gentine P. (2019). Implementing plant hydraulics in CLM5. JAMES.

2018

Fisher RA, Koven CD, Anderegg WRL, Christoffersen BO, Dietze MC, Farrior CE, Holm JA, Hurtt GC, Knox RG, Lawrence PJ, Lichstein JW, Longo M, et al. (2018). Vegetation demographics in Earth system models: a review of progress and priorities. Global Change Biology.
Powell TL, Koven CD, Johnson DJ, Faybishenko B, Fisher RA, Knox RG, McDowell NG, Condit R, Hubbell SP, Wright SJ, Chambers JQ. (2018). Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest biomass and promotes functional diversity. New Phytologist.
Malhi Y, Rowland L, Aragao L, Fisher RA. (2018). New insights into tropical land carbon cycle variability from the El Nino of 2015/2016. Philosophical Transactions B.

2017 and Earlier (selected)

McDowell NG, Williams AP, Xu C, Pockman WT, Dickman LT, Sevanto S, Pangle R, Limousin J, Ogee J, Domec JC, Allen CD, Fisher RA, et al. (2016). Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. Nature Climate Change.
Fisher RA, Muszala S, Verteinstein M, Lawrence P, Xu C, McDowell NG, Knox RG, Koven C, Holm J, Rogers BM, Spessa A. (2015). Taking off the training wheels: a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED). Geoscientific Model Development.
Bonan GB, Williams M, Fisher RA, Oleson KW. (2014). Modeling stomatal conductance in the Earth system by linking water-use efficiency and soil-plant-atmosphere transport. Geoscientific Model Development.
Fu R, Yin L, Li W, Arias PA, Dickinson RE, Huang L, Chakraborty S, Fernandes K, Liebmann B, Fisher RA, Myneni RB. (2013). Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia and implications for future climate projections. PNAS.
Huntingford C, Zelazowski P, Galbraith D, Mercado LM, Sitch S, Fisher RA, et al. (2013). Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change. Nature Geoscience.
Fisher RA, McDowell N, Purves DW, Moorcroft PR, Sitch S, Meir P, Cox P, Huntingford C, Woodward FI. (2010). Ecological scale limitations in second-generation dynamic vegetation models. New Phytologist.
Fisher JB, Sitch S, Malhi Y, Fisher RA, Huntingford C, Tan SY. (2010). Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: a globally applicable model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. DOI
Alton P, Fisher RA, Williams M, Los S. (2009). Simulations of global evapotranspiration using semi-empirical and mechanistic plant hydrology schemes. Journal of Geophysical Research. DOI
Fisher RA, Williams M, Ruivo ML, Sombroek WG, da Costa AL. (2008). Climatic and edaphic controls of drought stress at two Amazonian rain forest sites. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
Fisher RA, Williams M, da Costa AL, Malhi Y, da Costa RF, Almeida S, Meir P. (2007). Response of an eastern Amazonian rain forest to drought stress from a through-fall exclusion experiment. Global Change Biology.
Fisher RA, Williams M, Lobo do Vale R, da Costa AL, Meir P. (2006). Evidence from Amazonian forests is consistent with isohydric control of leaf water potential. Plant, Cell and Environment.

For the complete list, see Google Scholar and ORCID above.